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Why It Matters
Covariate effects vary across contexts and shift over time, requiring forecasters to assess how to use them for each forecasting context.
Provenance
Discovered via ArXiv and published by ArXiv.
Key Claims
Original description
Covariate effects vary across contexts and shift over time, requiring forecasters to assess how to use them for each forecasting context. As forecasting proceeds, observations for earlier forecasts become available, providing feedback on past covariate use for subsequent forecasts. However, when multiple covariates act together, the forecast error reveals the numerical discrepancy from the observation but not how the covariates should have been used. We introduce JudgeCast, an experience-based framework for time series forecasting with covariates. Following the judgmental adjustment practice,...
Discovered via ArXiv
Research papers and preprints from arXiv.
Publisher: arxiv.org
ID: http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.36966v1 · Indexed about 2 hours ago