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Why It Matters
People increasingly use language models to support life decisions.
Provenance
Discovered via ArXiv and published by ArXiv.
Key Claims
Original description
People increasingly use language models to support life decisions. Many such decisions involve a probabilistic forecast: How likely is a major life event, a natural disaster, or an economic outcome? Users of language models may implicitly trust that these forecasts fall out of a coherent world model. In this paper, we evaluate the coherence of language model probabilistic forecasts through a procedure that builds on a theorem due to de Finetti. We elicit forecasts from language models across events generated from stock returns data. We then use linear programs to compute the largest Dutch-book...
Discovered via ArXiv
Research papers and preprints from arXiv.
Publisher: arxiv.org
ID: http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02797v1 · Indexed about 2 hours ago